U.S. mortgage loan activity fell again, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 8

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.18%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.08%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.05%. The European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.1%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 0.24%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.2%, and the German DAX index was basically unchanged.

2. Interpretation of market news

U.S. mortgage loan activity fell again, indicating a sharp reversal in housing demand

The number of U.S. home purchase mortgage loan and refinancing mortgage loan applications fell for the second consecutive week, showing a rapid reversal of signs that had previously been regarded as hope for a recovery in the U.S. housing market. The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) home purchase mortgage application index fell 1.2% in the week ended October 3, while the refinance indicator fell 7.7%. Both fell back to levels last seen in early September, when mortgage rates were on their way to one-year lows. A www.xmltrust.composite indicator that includes both types of applications fell 4.7% after plunging 12.7% the previous week. While contract interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages edged lower to 6.43%, the previous week's jump was enough to deter potential buyers and homeowners looking to lock in lower borrowing costs. That brought an early uptick in housing activity to a screeching halt and could further extend the market's multi-year slump.

The European Union released two strategies to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence

The European www.xmltrust.commission released two strategies on the 8th: "Applied Artificial Intelligence" and "Artificial Intelligence in Science" to accelerate the application of artificial intelligence.Fast-track the application of artificial intelligence in European industry and science. The "Applied Artificial Intelligence" strategy aims to leverage the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, covering strategic areas such as medical and pharmaceuticals, energy, manufacturing, defense and www.xmltrust.communications. Specific measures include establishing advanced medical screening centers empowered by artificial intelligence and supporting the development of cutting-edge models and intelligence for industries such as manufacturing, environment and pharmaceuticals.

The demand for U.S. mortgage loans has cooled across the board, and refinancing activities have dropped sharply by 7.7%

⑴ The U.S. mortgage market index fell 4.7% to 323.1 points, hitting a new low for the week of October 3. ⑵The home purchase loan index fell by 1.2% to 170.6 points, indicating that the demand for home purchases continues to slow down. ⑶The refinancing index dropped sharply by 7.7% to 1180.2 points, which was significantly higher than other sub-indices. ⑷The average 30-year mortgage interest rate fell by 3 basis points to 6.43%, but it failed to effectively stimulate loan application activity. ⑸The survey covers more than 75% of retail residential mortgage loan applications in the United States, and the data base period is March 16, 1990.

Trump’s policy storm has swept across many fields, and nine major trends have reshaped the market structure

⑴ Trump has claimed that he will promote the return of automobile manufacturing to the United States and plans to discuss lowering tariff barriers to the Canadian automobile industry. ⑵ During the meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister, he hinted at the possibility of a merger between the United States and Canada, triggering widespread speculation on the geopolitical landscape. ⑶Middle East diplomacy has made progress, announcing that it is very close to reaching a Gaza agreement and promising to ensure subsequent www.xmltrust.compliance by all parties. ⑷ Accused the Democratic Party of being responsible for the government shutdown and used the "kamikaze" metaphor to criticize it for obstructing the passage of the appropriation bill. ⑸ Warned that some positions will be permanently laid off during the government shutdown, and a specific job list is expected to be announced within four to five days. ⑹Threaten not to pay back wages to some federal employees after the shutdown is over, a move that may face strict legal scrutiny. ⑺ Publicly defended the US military’s actions against Venezuelan offshore vessels on the grounds of new “waterway drugs”. ⑻ Emphasize that if the governor fails to perform his duties, he will invoke the rebellion law to take action, and clearly require the city to be safe. ⑼ The Texas National Guard has arrived in areas near Chicago in accordance with the transfer order, and some troops have www.xmltrust.completed the assembly of military facilities.

The results of the issuance of German 15-year government bonds are divided, and the demand is uneven.

⑴ Germany raised a total of approximately 1.586 billion euros through the issuance of two additional 15-year government bonds. ⑵ Among them, the issuance of 3.25% coupon rate products is 733 million euros, and the issuance of 2.60% coupon rate products is 853 million euros. ⑶The average yields of the two bonds are 3.06% and 3.08% respectively, both slightly higher than the 3.03% of the previous issuance. ⑷ Market demand is polarized: the bidding multiple for the 3.25% variety is 2.8 times, significantly higher than the previous 2.2 times. ⑸The bidding multiple for the 2.60% variety is only 1.2 times, which is significantly lower than the previous level of 2.2 times.

The European Union invested 1 billion euros in betting on AI sovereignty, and the three major fields took the lead in making breakthroughs

⑴The European www.xmltrust.commission announced on Wednesday that it will launch a scale of 1 billion eurosThe Euro's "Applied AI" strategic plan aims to strengthen the application of artificial intelligence in key industries. ⑵The clear goal of this plan is to promote the EU to reduce its dependence on US and Chinese technology and build an independent technology ecosystem. ⑶ President of the European www.xmltrust.commission Von der Leyen emphasized that "the future of artificial intelligence is realized in Europe" and will fully implement the "artificial intelligence first" thinking. ⑷In the healthcare field, a network of AI-driven advanced screening centers will be established to improve the efficiency of medical services. ⑸The manufacturing, climate and pharmaceutical industries will focus on developing agent-based AI to promote intelligent industrial upgrading. ⑹ The funds mainly www.xmltrust.come from existing research projects such as "Horizon Europe" and "Digital Europe", and are expected to attract member states and private sector supporting funds.

U.S.-EU trade negotiations are in turmoil again, and the EU responds strongly to the United States' "extreme demands"

⑴ EU officials believe that the new round of trade concession demands proposed by the United States are too extreme and may weaken the results of the recently reached trade agreement. ⑵The Trump administration submitted a new proposal to the EU this month, calling for the promotion of "reciprocal, fair and balanced" trade relations. ⑶Some people familiar with the matter pointed out that the concessions requested by the United States are quite large, but the specific details have not been publicly disclosed. ⑷ The new demands www.xmltrust.come as the two sides are in follow-up negotiations on the trade agreement reached this summer, which imposed a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the United States. ⑸The United States has been seeking to discuss the EU's digital and technology rules, corporate www.xmltrust.compliance and climate-related legislation. ⑹ The EU has repeatedly emphasized that maintaining regulatory autonomy is an "insurmountable red line", but promised to consult with the United States on each specific issue.

The Bank of Thailand’s suspension of interest rate cuts hides a mystery, and the easing cycle is far from over

⑴Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that the Bank of Thailand’s decision to maintain the policy interest rate at 1.50% does not mean the end of the easing cycle. ⑵ As economic growth continues to be weak and deflationary pressures remain, the central bank is expected to resume interest rate cuts soon. ⑶The tone of the central bank's statement was relatively dovish, with policymakers acknowledging that economic growth may struggle in the next year. ⑷Inflation level is expected to remain in a very low range, providing policy space for continued easing. ⑸ Capital Economics predicts that there will be two more 25 basis point interest rate cuts in this cycle, and the policy interest rate will drop to 1.0% by the end of 2026.

France’s political deadlock is now turning, and budget negotiations reduce the risk of early elections

⑴ French caretaker Prime Minister Le Corny said on Wednesday that an agreement on the national budget is expected to be reached before the end of the year, which reduces the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections. ⑵ Le Corny pointed out after talks with conservative and center-right parties that the willingness of all parties to reach a budget created momentum and convergence, significantly reducing the prospect of parliamentary dissolution. ⑶ He will meet with President Macron as planned on Wednesday to discuss the results of negotiations between the parties and assess the possibility of reaching an agreement. ⑷Based on the negotiations that have taken place so far, Le Corny hopes to reduce the French budget deficit from the 2025 target of 5.4% to between 4.7% and 5%. ⑸Le Kearney will discuss how the Socialist Party and the Green Party can support the budget agreement during Wednesday’s talks.specific concessions that may be required.

The French Electricity strike alarm sounded, and the 48-hour shutdown impacted energy supply

⑴ French Electricite www.xmltrust.company has officially received a strike notice, and the strike is scheduled to start at 21:00 on October 8, Central European Time. ⑵This industrial action will last until 21:00 on October 9, for a total of 48 hours. ⑶ According to Beijing time conversion, the strike period is from 04:00 on October 9 to 04:00 on October 10.

France’s pension reform took a sharp turn, and the market alarm suddenly sounded

⑴ France’s outgoing Prime Minister Le Corny proposed a www.xmltrust.compromise plan, proposing to suspend Macron’s signature pension reform in exchange for parliamentary support. ⑵ The core of Macron’s reform is to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years old. Suspension of this reform is regarded as a major concession to the left-wing camp. ⑶ This move aims to resolve the current political crisis and avoid early parliamentary elections, but at the cost of sacrificing the core pillars of Macron's economic reforms. ⑷The left-wing camp welcomed the proposal, and European Parliament member Raphael Glucksmann said there is a feasible path to achieve the suspension of reforms. ⑸ Rating agency Fitch became the first agency to downgrade France's sovereign credit rating last month, clearly warning that failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures may trigger further rating downgrades.

Japan’s ruling coalition is now divided and Takaichi Sanae’s path to becoming Prime Minister is blocked

⑴ Liberal Democratic Party President Takaichi Sanae faces policy doubts from his co-ruling partner Komeito, which may affect his process of taking over as prime minister. ⑵Takaichi Sanae held talks with Komeito leaders on Tuesday to discuss the other party’s concerns about its policy stance. ⑶Although Sanae Takaichi is widely expected to become Japan's first female prime minister later this month, the ruling coalition does not have an absolute majority in parliament. ⑷If Komeito withdraws from the coalition, Takaichi Sanae may seek to form alliances with other political parties such as the National Democratic Party, exacerbating investors' concerns about Japan's debt. ⑸The parliamentary vote was originally expected to be held on October 15, but may be postponed as alliance negotiations continue. ⑹Political analysts pointed out that the possibility of the opposition parties uniting to challenge Takaashi Sanae is slim, and his election as prime minister is almost a foregone conclusion

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the EUR/USD fell, now trading at 1.1635, a decrease of 0.19%. In the New York pre-market, (EURUSD) price rose above its last intraday levels after approaching our morning suggested target of 1.1600, trying to recover some of the previous losses and trying to digest the clearly oversold levels on the RSI, especially in the case of a positive cross, while a bearish corrective trend dominates in the short term and trades along the support trend line.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3416, a decrease of 0.07%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) price fell in its recent intraday trading, breaking the key support level of 1.3415, confirming its clear bearish secondary volatility advantage on a short-term basis, while it continued to trade along the supportive trend line to the downside. This decline www.xmltrust.comes against the backdrop of continued negative pressure as the price remains stable below the EMA50, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in the current trend.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4042.24, an increase of 1.45%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices declined in the final trading session after breaking through the major resistance at $4,000 for the first time in history, trying to collect gains quickly before setting a new all-time high. Additionally, after reaching overbought levels, the relative strength indicator showed a negative crossover in an attempt to escape some of these conditions. The main bullish trend dominates on a short-term basis and trades along the trend line.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 48.937, an increase of 2.31%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices rose on the last trading day, supported by the emergence of positive signals on the relative strength indicator, which despite reaching overbought levels, took advantage of the dynamic support it represented on the exchange above the EMA50, while trading along the bullish trend line on a short-term basis, reinforcing the positive trajectory of the price.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 62.740, an increase of 1.64%. Crude oil prices have recently risen during the session, settling above $61.50 before trading in New York, a sign of an attempt to realize more gains in the period ahead. This rise is supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index, which broke out of overbought conditions during the previous move, opening the way for a bullish trajectory.

4. Institutional view

Moody's: Japan's wage growth continues to be weak, which will affect the rationality of raising interest rates in January next year.

Moody's analyst Stefan Angrick said that Japan's wage growth continues to be weak, adding obstacles to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike plan. Japan's average monthly cash income data in August was lower than Moody's Analysis and consensus market expectations, while real wages adjusted for inflation fell. Angrick notes that slowing wage growth is not surprising - U.S. concernsThe tax has hit Japanese manufacturing, causing uncertainty and causing www.xmltrust.companies to delay investment in capital and labor. It is worth noting that even with significant results in annual wage negotiations over the past three years, core wage growth has failed to show greater resilience. Weak wage growth coupled with stubbornly high inflation will make it difficult for the Bank of Japan to justify raising interest rates in the short term. Angrick said: "We expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January next year, but every weak wage data will make it more difficult to convince the market of the rationality of tightening policy."

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: U.S. mortgage loan activity declined again, spot gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trend analysis on October 8". It was carefully www.xmltrust.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Spring, summer, autumn and winter, every season is a beautiful scenery, and they all stay in my heart forever. Gone away~~~