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Gold's early low is the intraday watershed, and the four-hour resistance in Europe and the United States is the short-term watershed.
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold's early low is the intraday watershed, and the four-hour resistance in Europe and the United States is the short-term watershed." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
U.S. Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the U.S. dollar index, the U.S. dollar index showed an upward trend on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index price climbed to a maximum of 99.036 that day, dropped to a minimum of 98.525, and finally closed at 98.828. Looking back at the overall performance of the market on Wednesday, prices continued to soar strongly during the early trading. Although the European market fluctuated and adjusted, the US market remained strong again, and finally the day ended in a positive state.
From the perspective of multi-cycle analysis, at the weekly level, the price has recently been consolidating up and down the key weekly line. The current weekly support is in the 97.90 area. We will continue to pay attention to the price closing above this position on a weekly basis. Once it closes above this position, the midline will subsequently rise. From the daily level, as time goes by, the current daily support is in the 98 area, and the price band above this position will rise further. From a four-hour perspective, the price was under pressure at the four-hour resistance level at the beginning of last week. The price broke through and rose last Thursday, and then stepped back to the daily line and four-hour support on Friday. The overall four-hour support is currently at 98.60-70, and the price remains long above this position in the short term. On the hour, the price fluctuated near the trend line highlighted yesterday. At present, the short-term is still bullish, so for the time being, it will remain long until the four-hour support does not break below. Only after it breaks below will the gap be covered. For the time being, I can treat it as a trading method on the right side.
The U.S. index is in the 98.60-70 range, with a defense of 5 US dollars and a target of 99.10-99.30 (only when the weak falls below the four-hour support, we will pay attention to adjustments to cover the gap)
Gold
In terms of gold, the price of gold generally showed an increase on Wednesday. The price rose to a maximum of 4059 on that day, fell to a minimum of 3983.21, and closed at 4041.38. The price of gold reached a new high in the short term during the early trading on Wednesday, and the market continued to be strong thereafter. The price continued to fluctuate after the US market opened, and the closing was not a very strong one. Therefore, today's early trading cannot follow a very strong layout. The gains and losses of support in the next four hours will determine whether it can continue.
From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. From a long-term perspective, the 3130 position is the watershed of the long-term trend. The price can be treated as long as it is above this position. From the perspective of the weekly level, the current dividing line between long and short on the weekly line is at 3531, and the price can be treated as long as the midline is above this position. From the daily level, we need to pay attention to the support of the 3862 area for the time being, and the bands above this position should be treated more. From a four-hour perspective, during today's early trading, the downward retracement just tested the four-hour support and then stopped rising. Therefore, this position is the key to the short-term trend. As time goes by, we will temporarily pay attention to the support in the 4010-4011 range. At the same time, the early trading low is the watershed for the day. One hour later, the current price downward correction has not ended yet, so we will temporarily focus on the European market rhythm, then re-arrange the US market, and focus on the gains and losses at the early lows in terms of position.
Gold's early low is the watershed for the day, and it will remain long until it breaks. Focus on the strength and weakness of the European market (beware of downward corrections)
Europe and the United States
In Europe and the United States, European and American prices generally showed a decline on Wednesday. The price dropped to the lowest position of 1.1598 on the day, rose to the highest position of 1.1666, and closed at 1.1625 position. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Wednesday, prices fell under short-term pressure during early trading. After that, the market continued to be weak. Since the overall price was still below the four-hour resistance, the short-term view was still bearish.
From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported at the 1.1100 position, so the price is treated as a long-term position above this position. From a weekly perspective, the price is supported by the 1.1690 area. This position is the long-short watershed of the mid-line trend. This week, it is key to focus on whether the weekly closing can close below this position. From the daily level, the daily line is the key for us to emphasize the band trend. The current daily resistance is at 1.1710, and the price will continue to be under pressure in the band below this position. From a four-hour perspective, the current resistance is in the 1.1640-50 range. Below this position, it will be temporarily supported. Only when it breaks above this position will the gap be filled. Otherwise, it will be temporarily viewed on the right side as being supported. In one hour, as the price falls under pressure, the short-term focus is on the support of the 1.1570 area. This position is the short-term support area below.
Europe and the United States focus on the 1.1640-50 watershed, and if it does not break, first look at the pressure test of 1.1570 (the gap will be filled only if the four-hour resistance is exceeded)
[Today’s key financial data and events] Thursday, October 9, 2025
< p>①14:00 Germany's August seasonally adjusted trade balance②19:30 The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting
③20:30 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to October 4
④20:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech
⑤20:35 Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman gave a speech
⑥22:00 U.S. August wholesale sales monthly rate
⑦22:30 U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week to October 3
⑧Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr delivered a speech on the economic outlook at 00:45 the next day
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