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Gold and crude oil market trend forecast next week and the latest operating suggestions for Monday’s opening
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Gold and crude oil market trend forecast next week and the latest operating advice for Monday's opening." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The investment market always has four levels: preserving principal, controlling risks, earning income, and long-term stable and sustained profits. Don't decide the outcome based on one day's winning or losing. Whether making money is accidental or inevitable, whether it is based on hard work or luck. Those who survive in the market must be the investors who can ultimately make sustained profits in the long term. Trading is a good habit and strictly implement your trading plan. A rigorous transaction = good mentality control + correct position control + excellent technical skills. Cooperation never involves forced buying or selling. Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared. A correct choice is worth a hundred times of effort. If you believe in the teacher, I will give you a satisfactory profit. You just need it and I am just professional!
Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Friday (October 10), spot gold fluctuated and rose slightly, and is currently trading around US$3,986.60 per ounce, an increase of about 0.4%. Amid much attention, the price of gold historically broke through the psychological barrier of US$4,000 per ounce this week. However, the market's cheers have not yet subsided, and a sudden "tide of profit-taking" swept across. The price of gold took a sharp turn after hitting a record high of $4,059.05. It fell nearly 2% on Thursday (October 9), eventually falling below the $4,000 mark and closing at around $3,976. At the same time, its "sister metal" silver also fell from its historical high of $51.22, closing at $49.23. This high "diving" market is like a basin of cold water, waking up investors who were immersed in the bull market carnival. The direct triggers driving this round of decline are the continued strength of the U.S. dollar index and the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East.. The U.S. dollar index rose for four consecutive sessions to hit a new high in nearly two months, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has weakened the shine of gold as a geopolitical safe-haven asset, prompting some speculators to choose to "take it easy."
Gold technical analysis: Gold finally showed its first wave of retracement. Last night it fell from a high of 4058 to a low of 3944, a drop of more than 100 points. This was also the first retracement after the recent surge in gold prices. The main reason for the sharp correction in gold prices last night was the strength of the US dollar, and after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, investors took the opportunity to take profits. Gold broke through highs and fell all the way, but in the end it failed to hold the 4000 line. The daily line was covered by dark clouds. The resistance in early trading was around 4000, which is also the top-bottom transition position. Gold has formed a double top in the short term.
From a technical point of view, the daily Yin line has fallen back, and the daily line has formed a typical "yin covering yang" K-line pattern. This form clearly shows that the short-term market has changed from the previous strength to an adjustment trend. Affected by yesterday's sharp decline, gold prices have effectively fallen below the 5-day moving average support, and the short-term moving average support function has failed. After today's opening, the price of gold is temporarily running between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, and is in the transition range of the short-term moving average. We need to focus on the continuity of this adjustment trend during the day. The key support level below can be locked near the 10-day moving average, which is currently roughly located near 3920. This position will become an important reference for whether the short-term market can stop falling and stabilize. Regarding today's market, we continue to be optimistic about the inertial decline today, and the break below the 4,000 mark in the second half of the night has become the watershed between bulls and bears today. If the market rebounds and stands above 4000 again, then the market may continue to move higher. On the contrary, below 4000, we still tend to be bearish! The support below focuses on 3930. Once it breaks below, the current upward channel will break down, and the next step will be to further accelerate the downward stage. Of course, the weak market will not give you an ideal short-selling opportunity. The current 3990 line is 38.2%*, which is also the 5-day moving average pressure level. Moreover, when the air force is exerting force, the speed is usually very fast, and hesitation is destined to make you stare! Therefore, in terms of operation, we continue to hold gold 4057 short overnight. Today, it is recommended to continue to add short positions below 4000. The target is 3930. If the position is broken, it is time to add positions again! On the whole, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold next week, He Bosheng recommends shorting mainly on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus will be on the 4010-4020 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 3960-3950 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil market trends next week:
Crude oil news analysis: In the U.S. market on Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) continued its correction and was trading at $59.80 per barrel. According to market surveys, Israel and Hamas officially signed a ceasefire agreement, marking a temporary relaxation of the situation in the Middle East. The agreement includes arrangements for a partial withdrawal of troops and the release of detained personnel, which is widely believed to reduce crude oil supply disruptionsrisk. As the Middle East is the source of about one-third of the world's crude oil exports, the decline in geo-risk premium has put WTI under short-term pressure. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted for ten days, and Congress has still not passed a budget, leading to a shutdown of some federal agencies. The market is worried that this will weaken the vitality of the US economy and suppress energy consumption demand. The current trend of WTI reflects the characteristics of "political risks recede and economic expectations dominate". The easing of tensions in the Middle East has caused oil prices to lose upward momentum, while the fiscal impasse in the United States has heightened uncertainty on the demand side.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level of crude oil, oil prices have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and the objective trend is downward in the medium term. Oil prices fluctuated near the lower edge of the range. The MACD indicator fast and slow line is below the zero axis, and short kinetic energy has the advantage. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fluctuate and decline with a high probability. The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) failed to break through the second upward test, and was once again blocked by 62.30 and fell. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend is downward. The MACD indicator's fast and slow line crosses downwards, and the short momentum is abundant. Oil prices rebounded weakly in early trading, and crude oil prices are expected to maintain a downward trend during the day. On the whole, He Bosheng suggested that crude oil operation ideas next week should mainly rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by falling back to lows. The top short-term focus is on the 61.0-62.0 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 58.5-57.5 first-line support.
He Boxheng’s message: I have no fancy language here, only real transactions and clear operations. The market has only one direction, neither long nor short, but the right direction. Reasonable risk control and good investment returns allow every retail investor to find the real joy of investing, instead of having to deal with daily hardships in exchange for increasing losses. I have always believed that choice is more important than hard work. In addition to bringing profits to customers, a good instructor and a good technical team should also be responsible to customers. Individual investors, facing the market on their own, can easily become obsessed with the authorities and be caught off guard when encountering sharp rises and falls. However, if there is someone outside the circle who can see the situation clearly and give direction, they can do better.
This article is exclusively planned by He Bosheng, a gold and crude oil analyst (WeChat: hbs6286 and DingTalk: hbs6282). Due to the delay in network push, the above content is a personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, the suggestions in the article are for learning reference only. You should operate at your own risk. Regardless of whether the views and strategies of the article agree with others, you can www.xmltrust.come to me to discuss and learn together! Nothing is difficult in the world, as long as there are people who are willing. Investment itself carries risks. I remind everyone to look for authoritative platforms and powerful teachers. Fund safety www.xmltrust.comes first, secondly consider operational risks, and finally how to make profits.
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