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Who goes up and who goes down? The Fed’s five-member list is leading the market to a tipping point!

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Who is up and who is down? The Fed's five-person list is leading the market to a critical point!". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (October 10), the global financial market showed an obvious wait-and-see attitude after the news that the list of candidates for the chairman of the Federal Reserve was reduced to five people. A rigorous screening process led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reduced the initial list of 11 candidates to five candidates: current Fed Vice Chairman Bowman, Governor Waller, National Economic Council Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Riedel.

Sources revealed that these candidates may first be nominated as Fed governors and www.xmltrust.complete the process before January next year, but the finalization of the chairman may need to wait until Trump’s final decision after Thanksgiving. This sensitive change at this time www.xmltrust.comes as the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting approaches, and the market's interpretation of the path of interest rate cuts has become increasingly divided. Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has further highlighted, while the weakness of the US dollar has amplified external uncertainty.

This background is not an isolated incident, but a continuation of the test of the Fed’s independence. Recently, Trump's tariff remarks have triggered a rise in risk aversion in the market, coupled with the continued fluctuations in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, pushing up global liquidity preferences. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that the expectation of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve has dominated the short-term market: Gold has fallen back after this week's high, partly due to bulls reducing their positions at high levels, but overall long positions are still at high levels, suggesting limited room for correction; the low fluctuations in the US dollar index are due to the fact that the pricing of easing policies has reached more than 80%, and any dovish signals may intensify its downward pressure.

Robin Brooks, senior researcher for institutional accounts, bluntly stated that the rise in gold stems from concerns about the politicization of central banks, rather than simply the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. The stability of the U.S. dollar index highlights this structural change. Retail investors’ interpretation is more intuitive, believing that gold has exceeded 3900The dollar/ounce is not a panic signal, but a warning of the decline of the U.S. dollar empire, with a potential reset or push to $10,000/ounce. The intertwining of these voices outlines the market's sensitivity to the candidates' policy stances - whoever takes office will directly reshape the Fed's interest rate cut pace and amplify the transmission effect on gold and the US dollar.

Analysis of Candidate Positions: A Clear Policy Spectrum

The selection process of the candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve is essentially a weighing of the direction of monetary policy by the Trump camp. The interview hosted by Bessant focused on the interest rate stance and inflation tolerance. The historical statements of the five candidates showed obvious differences between hawks and doves, which directly affected the market's pricing of the 2026 FOMC path. Current Fed officials Bowman and Waller are more dovish, Hassett and Riedel continue to be easing, while Warsh's hawkish background may become an anchor for tightening.

Bowman

As Vice Chairman of Supervision, Bowman’s position has undergone a subtle shift in 2025. Early on, she was seen as one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC and had continued to emphasize inflation risks after her appointment in 2018, but recent concerns about the deterioration of the labor market have led her to support more interest rate cuts. Reports from well-known institutions show that Bowman expressed concern about the weakening labor market in a speech in September, suggesting that three rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts may be needed in 2025 to buffer the economic downturn. This shift is not an isolated case, but a microcosm of the Fed's overall dovish tilt. Bowman's dovish turn may strengthen expectations for a flattening of the curve, which is good for gold positions in the short term.

Waller

Waller's stance is more clearly dovish. As a director, he publicly supported a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September as early as August, and emphasized the need for easing in the FOMC dissent. Institutional views believe that Waller's flexibility makes it an uneasy factor for dollar bulls. If it rises, the federal funds rate may quickly drop below 3% in 2026.

Hassett

Turning to outside candidates, Hassett, as Trump’s long-time economic adviser, has a decidedly dovish stance. He prioritizes cutting interest rates to stimulate growth. He has publicly criticized the Fed for excessive tightening and advocated loosening policies to boost the stock market and employment. Analysis by well-known institutions shows that Hassett's policy preferences may amplify the effect of fiscal expansion and indirectly push up inflation expectations, but will put greater pressure on the dollar. Some investors regard Hassett as a "puppet chairman" and predict that his ascendancy will lead to a steepening of the curve, and gold will take the opportunity to rise.

Wash

In contrast, Warsh’s experience as a former Fed governor makes him stand out as a hawkish representative. He has always advocated a monetarist framework, criticized the Federal Reserve's expansionary policies for causing out-of-control inflation, and reiterated in recent interviews that his independence is limited, but he needs to maintain the credibility of the dollar through tightening. This position conflicts with Trump's demand for low interest rates, but agency reports indicate that Warsh may push the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts under the inflationary pressure caused by tariff remarks.

Riedel

As a BlackRock executive, Riedel has a strong dovish tone. He publicly admitted that he was concerned abouttax-driven inflation risks, but still urges the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts to create the best investment environment. Well-known institutions believe that Riddell's asset management background may strengthen the trend of ETFs flowing into gold and amplify its safe-haven premium.

The dovish tilt of the candidate list has driven gold's rise since Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole, while the stability of the U.S. dollar index has masked broader concerns about dollar depreciation. Some investors also interpret from a macro perspective that gold's 40% annual increase is due to the U.S. debt trap rather than simple inflation. The hawk-dove game between candidates will determine whether it hits the $4,000 mark. Logically, this spectrum ensures the continuity of the Fed's policy, but it also creates hidden dangers of disagreement - doves taking the lead may accelerate easing, while hawks taking over may reverse expectations.

The differentiated impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations: from FOMC path to curve reshaping

The implementation of the candidate list directly tests the market's resilience to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Currently, the CMEFedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November has exceeded 90%, but the differences in the path in 2026 stem from the policy spectrum of the candidates. Doves such as Waller and Hassett may push the FOMC to shift from risk management-style interest rate cuts to more aggressive easing, with the cumulative reduction expected to reach more than 100 basis points throughout the year. This will amplify the effect of liquidity injection and boost risk assets, but will also intensify the downward pressure on the US dollar. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that if Waller rises, the yield curve may flatten by 5-7 basis points in the 2s-10s, which will be negative for the U.S. index in the short term. On the contrary, Warsh's hawkish framework may delay the pace of interest rate cuts, emphasize inflation anchoring, potentially maintain the federal funds rate above 4%, and strengthen the dollar's safe-haven attributes.

This differentiation is not static, but intertwined with peripheral factors. The repercussions of Trump's tariff remarks have raised market alarm about imported inflation, and reports from well-known institutions show that this may force the Federal Reserve to weigh loose borders under the leadership of a dovish group. The continued uncertainty about the situation between Russia and Ukraine has further amplified the demand for safe havens. According to Goldman Sachs, gold's breakthrough stems from the surge in ETF holdings and the restart of central bank demand, rather than the collapse of the US dollar. There is a warning that in the absence of Volcker-style tightening, dovish candidates will continue the dollar depreciation cycle, and gold's structural rise will be difficult to reverse. From a trader's perspective, this expected divergence has been reflected in the implied volatility of options: demand for gold's call options is strong, and short positions on the U.S. index have reached a recent high, suggesting that the market is "betting" on the policy shift.

The impact on market trends is progressive. In the short term, the postponement of the list interview - Bessant first needs to attend the World Bank/IMF meeting and Asia trip - will maintain the uncertainty premium, gold will retreat to the support level of US$3,900 per ounce, and the US dollar index may bottom out near 99 points. The divergence in interest rate cut expectations will be transmitted from the curve to asset allocation: the dovish path is good for equity and www.xmltrust.commodities, while the hawkish path will reshape the bond market's risk aversion logic, ensuring the balance of the Federal Reserve but also amplifying fluctuations.

Potential impact on gold and the US dollar: safe haven premium and exchange rate anchoring

CandidatesThe hawk-dove differentiation of people's positions directly hits the core transmission mechanism of gold and the US dollar. Dovish leadership - Bowman, Waller, Hassett or Riedel - will strengthen the pricing of interest rate cuts, reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and promote the expansion of its safe-haven premium. Gold is currently quoted at US$3,998.25 per ounce, and the fall from this week's high of US$4,060 is only a technical adjustment. Well-known institutions predict that if the easing path is confirmed, gold may retest US$4,100, or even touch US$5,000 if inflation reignites. This bullish logic for gold is self-consistent: in a low interest rate environment, real yields have declined, demand from central banks and ETFs has poured in, and Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has become fuel for gold's "chaos."

On the other hand, Warsh’s hawks may reverse the narrative. By slowing down interest rate cuts, he may anchor the U.S. dollar index above 100, raising the opportunity cost of gold, causing it to fall back to support at $3,800. Institutional views believe that this impact will be transmitted from the exchange rate: a rebound in the U.S. index is negative for non-U.S. www.xmltrust.commodities, but it also buffers inflationary pressures. Some institutions added from a long-term perspective that gold's U.S. dollar-denominated returns already depend on exchange rate depreciation, and the rise of hawks may lead to a 1980-style correction. Generally speaking, hawkish signals that are negative for gold have more impact in the short term, but in the long term, the probability of dove dominance is higher - Trump's demand for low interest rates dominates - ensuring the structural long position in gold.

The logical chain of this impact is clear: from policy expectations to asset pricing, to global allocation adjustments. The global South's reliance on gold as cross-border collateral will amplify price increases on a weak dollar. A short-term correction will not change the bullish trend, but hawkish surprises may trigger a chain of selling.

Looking forward, the final selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman will reshape the global liquidity structure in early 2026. In the short term, the results of interviews around Thanksgiving may amplify volatility.

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